Further shortening of chip delivery time; IGBT continues to run out of stock and increase prices! The entire staff of storage chips suffered huge losses, and the production reduction was ongoing

The chip delivery time is shortened by 9 months of connection

The chip delivery cycle has been shortened for 9 consecutive months, and the current semiconductor delivery cycle is 4 weeks lower than the historical peak in May 2022. The actual delivery cycle may be shortened faster than expected, as dealers are concerned that customers will cancel orders.

For manufacturers, the delivery cycle of Microchip has significantly shortened, and that of Xilinx has also significantly shortened in the past few months. However, the delivery time of ST, Infineon and Onsemi is still relatively stable.

In terms of automotive chips, except for silicon-based power devices and MCUs, there is still a shortage, and the delivery dates of PMICs, CIS, embedded multimedia cards, and display driver ICs are gradually loosening. However, as the backlog of orders from vehicle manufacturers gradually decreases, the purchasing power of the automotive supply chain for automotive chips is gradually fading, and it is estimated that the delivery time of most automotive chips will continue to shorten in 2023.

The delivery period of automotive MCU is partially short, and the price trend is stable or rising

According to data from Fuchang Electronics, most overseas MCU manufacturers currently have stable or shortened product lead times, while some automotive MCU lead times are in short supply, and the price trend is stable or rising.

In addition, according to the Spot market news, the demand of TI's automobile market is still strong, the delivery date of vehicle gauge products remains around 30 weeks, the demand of ST is also concentrated on vehicle gauge MCU and IGBT, and the shortage of popular materials of NXP has basically alleviated.

IGBT is out of stock and prices continue to rise

With the demand for electric vehicles and solar energy, the insulated gate Bipolar junction transistor (IGBT) has been out of stock recently, and the price has continued to rise. In addition, IGBT contract manufacturers have also increased the price significantly.

At the beginning of this year, Hanlei raised the IGBT production line contract price by about 10%. Hanlei is one of the IGBT foundries and holds a large order from Infineon, the leader of IGBT chip components. The DigiTimes of Taiwan, China, China, said that the news that Tesla had cut down 75% of silicon carbide consumption aggravated the shortage of IGBT, which may be one of the alternatives.

When will IGBT no longer be out of stock? David Ma, an analyst at DIGITIMES Research, stated that IGBT may achieve supply and demand balance in the third quarter of 2023. However, some industry insiders predict that IGBT will continue to experience shortages and price increases until at least mid-2024.

【 Drive IC to stop falling and slow up, with a 10% to 15% increase in April 】

Affected by the price reduction of Foundry model, the convergence of chip quotation decline, and the gradual reduction of high inventory, the relevant manufacturers of drive IC and Power management integrated circuit have become the first manufacturers to take a breather in recent IC design. The companies concerned said frankly that the "most stressful quarter" in Q4 2022 had passed, and the cost structure was improving, which gradually eased the pressure on Gross margin.

Recently, there have been rumors in the market that IC manufacturers such as Lianyong and Sichuang will benefit from the slow increase in terminal demand, customer restocking, and the launch of new products. In April, they will increase some of the driving IC prices by 10% to 15%.

All storage chips suffer huge losses! Prices are approaching costs

The dark hour of the storage chip market has arrived. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and other storage chip giants have released their latest financial reports, and all of them have suffered huge losses!

According to the financial report, Samsung's revenue in Q4 2022 was 70.5 trillion won (approximately 57.2 billion US dollars), and its profit was 4.3 trillion won (approximately 3.5 billion US dollars), a sharp decrease of 69% year-on-year; In Q4 of 2022, SK Hynix's revenue will be 7.70 trillion won (about 6.301 billion US dollars), down 38% year on year, with a net loss of 3.52 trillion won (about 2.881 billion US dollars); Meiguang's Q1 2023 revenue decreased by 47% year-on-year to $4.085 billion, resulting in a loss of $39 million, compared to a net profit of $2.471 billion in the same period of 2021.

The performance of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron memory chips collectively exploded, which was mainly related to the historic decline in the price of memory chips.By Q4 of 2022, the overall inventory assets of Samsung and SK Hynix have continued to rise, and the prices of PC DRAM and NAND Flash chips have fallen close to cost. It is estimated that the transaction prices in Q1 of 2023 will fall by 19% and 18% respectively.

Changes in inventory days of memory manufacturers Micron and SK Hynix from 2018 to 2022 (unit: days)

At the industry level, large manufacturers such as Armour Xia, Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix have reduced production to alleviate the oversupply situation, which may narrow the decline. Compared to the average DRAM price decline of nearly 20% in the first quarter, it is estimated that the decline in the second quarter will converge to 10% -15%& Nbsp;

Original factory dynamicsTI

From the market perspective, most TI chips are on a downward trend, with prices continuing to decline and returning to normal prices. Some former internet celebrities such as TPS53513RVER have dropped from a 4-digit price to around 10 yuan.

However, TI's car material shortage problem is still serious, and prices are still at a very high level. TI's official signal to the public is that demand outside of automobiles is beginning to show signs of weakness, and cancellations of orders in the fourth quarter of last year have started to increase.

In terms of delivery time, the delivery time of the TI consumer and industrial grade series has significantly shortened. Currently, the delivery time is only about 6 to 8 weeks, but the delivery time of the automotive grade series is still around 30 weeks.

In addition, TI has recently launched a scalable Arm Cortex-M0+microcontroller (MCU) product line, further expanding its extensive portfolio of analog and embedded processing semiconductor products.

ST

ST universal MCU is gradually falling back to normal prices, but there is strong demand for car grade MCU, and prices remain high. Some models are showing serious shortages, such as the SPCXXX series. Although the VN series is in short supply, its prices have gradually declined in recent months.

In terms of chip delivery time, the delivery time for ST's automotive simulation and power supply is maintained at 40-52 weeks, while the delivery time for sensors and signal chains has decreased between 12-40 weeks. The delivery time for high and low voltage MOS and other vertical devices is around 47-54 weeks.

ST's Q4 financial report last year was impressive, with a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. At the same time, ST officials stated that automobiles and industry will become the main growth drivers for ST in 2023.

Microchip

Microchip has increased prices for multiple product lines by approximately 5% since March 1, 2023.However, the overall demand for Microchip is not high, and its main demand is concentrated in car grade MCUs. However, the supply of conventional 8-bit and 16-bit MCUs is relatively abundant, but market demand is weak, and prices are falling. For example, ATMEGA88PA-AU has basically returned to normal prices.

Due to increased demand and insufficient supply, the prices of KSZ and LAN are still very high, and the delivery time of the USB series is improving. The prices are currently showing a downward trend, and the supply of the high-value ATMEL ATxxx series is still tight. The delivery time of the series also exceeds 50 weeks, and the prices fluctuate. Microchip currently only accepts NCNR orders. Reduced delivery time for Bluetooth modules, within 24-26 weeks; EEPROM currently has strong demand, with a delivery time of 52 weeks; The delivery time of the ATSAMA5D series has been extended to 100 weeks and may be further extended.

NXP

The shortage of NXP automotive chips has basically eased, and except for the S912ZV series, other product lines have basically returned to the supply status of 2020. The S32K product line will replace the driver chips of the MC series, so the gap in the MC series will increase this year, and the corresponding chip delivery time is still 52 weeks starting. Freescale's MK series has a delivery time of 45-50 weeks, which has eased compared to 2022.

It is reported that NXP's original factory and agents have signed a supply guarantee agreement with major customers, and through expanding production capacity and optimizing production lines, the supply situation for car companies and industrial control customers will be largely alleviated in the second quarter of 2023. NXP's current production capacity can cover 80% of order demand.

It is worth mentioning that the price of MCF5282CVM66 rose slightly to 4500 yuan in March, far from returning to the market price of 850 yuan before the price increase.

Infineon

At present, the supply of multiple industrial control chips and IGBTs from Infineon is still very tight. Infineon has a delivery time of over 46 weeks for low-voltage MOS, over 50 weeks for high-voltage MOS, 39 to 50 weeks for IGBT, and 40 to 52 weeks for voltage regulator, automotive simulation, and power supply. In addition, the production capacity of automotive products in 2023 has been fully scheduled, and the delivery time of Infineon products is generally long, including IPW and IPD series, which are relatively scarce in the Spot market.

Recently, the models of the SAK-TC2 series have experienced a resurgence in popularity, such as SAK-TC277TP-64F200N, SAK-TC222S-1 6F133FAC, and others. The prices have increased and decreased, but they are higher than normal prices.

Meiguang

Due to the oversupply of storage chips and insufficient demand, Meguiar held more inventory and lost pricing power. Meguiar is reducing its budget for new factories and equipment, with an estimated expenditure of $7 billion to $7.5 billion in the 2023 fiscal year, lower than its previous target of up to $12 billion. The company is still slowing down the pace of introducing more advanced manufacturing technologies.

Onsemi

Onsemi's revenue in fiscal year 2022 reached 8.3 billion US dollars, a record. In the market for more than two years, the overall demand of Onsemi is relatively strong, which is a typical type of "making a big fortune with a dull voice".

The NCV and NRV series car specification chips and NVM series car specification MOS tubes are still out of stock, with high market prices and delivery times exceeding 70 weeks. The demand for semiconductor image sensors and automotive grade MOSEFT/transistors continued to grow in February, and the delivery time for MOSFETs and automotive materials is still very long, about 50 to 72 weeks.

In addition, because the NC7XXX series has a lower profit compared with other product series, Onsemi is considering stopping production of this series, and the subsequent shortage may intensify.

Reza

In line with the overall trend of the market, the demand for Reza is mainly concentrated in automotive related and niche fields, such as the shortage of MCU in the R5/R7 series. Optocouplers with PS prefix are out of stock in the market; The delivery time of switch regulators, 8-bit, and 32-bit MCUs has decreased to around 40 weeks; Some microcontroller production capacity is still tight, and M3026XX/M3062XX will take more than 52 weeks.

Industry direction

Statistics Bureau: The production of integrated circuits from January to February was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to February 2023, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year in real terms, and by 0.12% month on month. Among them, the production of integrated circuits from January to February was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%.

The production of microcomputer equipment from January to February was 46.04 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%. The production of mobile communication handheld devices reached 203.71 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, including 134.47 million smartphones, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. From January to February, there were 3.653 million vehicles, a decrease of 14.0%, including 970000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 16.3%; The power generation reached 1349.7 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 0.7%; The crude oil processing volume reached 116.07 million tons, an increase of 3.3%.

Renesa acquires semiconductor design company Panthronics

On March 22, Renesas Electronics announced that it would acquire Pantronics, an Austrian semiconductor design company. Its purpose is to improve the competitiveness of NFC Relevant market, which continue to grow rapidly with mobile payment terminals, the Internet of Things and Wireless power transfer. The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of 2023, and the acquisition amount has not been disclosed.

Pantronics, headquartered in Graz, Austria, was founded in 2014 and has been committed to providing advanced NFC chipsets and software that are easy to apply, innovative, small and efficient for payment, Internet of Things and NFC wireless charging.

Infineon acquires chip company GaN Systems for 5.7 billion yuan

On March 2nd, Infineon announced that it would acquire GaN Systems, a Canadian company specializing in gallium nitride (GaN) power devices, for $830 million (approximately RMB 5.7 billion).

GaN Systems was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada. It is a fabless semiconductor company. The company specializes in the research and development of GaN power devices, and its first-class system design can highlight the advantages of gallium nitride in power conversion and control applications. In order to overcome the limitations of silicon in conversion speed, temperature, voltage, and current, the company has developed a complete set of GaN power conversion devices suitable for various markets.

[IC design order warming up, restarting partial chip casting]

The recent demand for orders in the IC design industry has rebounded, with urgent and short orders being the main focus. After the application of replenishment in the IC design part, some chip material numbers also have an inventory pull alarm, and some IC design manufacturers gradually start to restart the launch, and it is expected that they will get the discount from the wafer foundry, which will be reflected in the cost in the second half of the year.

Some manufacturers admit that they will increase the number of films due to the attractiveness of prices, and are not pessimistic about the market outlook for the second half of the year. However, some manufacturers have also stated that customers are not clear about their demand for subsequent orders, but as some part numbers have already been digested, they have also started to re produce, but the production volume is not too high.

TSMC may raise prices again in the second half of the year, but the IC design industry is unlikely

According to foreign media reports, the electronics industry is in a hurry to withdraw orders, and TSMC, the wafer foundry, may raise prices again in the second half of the year to cope with the rising costs.

However, TSMC does not respond to price issues regarding this. At the same time, an IC designer pointed out that the prices of TSMC Foundry model had been agreed before the second quarter. At present, the prices in the third quarter have not changed, and the prices in the fourth quarter will not be negotiated until April.

TSMC's mature manufacturing process capacity has dropped from the previous full load to about 80% -90% generally, and other factories such as Uni Power, Powerchip and Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation have dropped to about 70%. Most of them have no capital to raise prices again when demand has not yet fully warmed up.

Global 300mm wafer fabs' capacity expansion rate slows down in 2023

According to the report released by the International Semiconductor industry Association (SEMI), global semiconductor manufacturers are expected to increase the production capacity of 300 mm wafers in 2026, reaching a historical high of 9.6 million wafers per month. After strong growth in 2021 and 2022, it is expected that the expansion of 300mm wafer fab capacity will slow down this year due to weak demand for memory and logic components.

In the forecast period from 2022 to 2026, chip manufacturers will increase the production capacity of 300 mm wafer factories to meet the demand growth, including Gexin, Huahong Semiconductor, Infineon, Intel, Armour, Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, TSMC and Uni Power. These companies plan to operate 82 new factories and production lines between 2023 and 2026.

GPU shortage, downstream urgent search for substitutes, price war starts

The demand for Gaosuanli GPU is rising rapidly, and Nvidia GPU has fallen into a serious shortage. Many companies have begun to seek alternatives to AMD and other brands. In order to attract customers, Intel has taken the lead in launching a GPU price war.

According to the DigiTimes of Taiwan, Microsoft and other customers have strong demand for Nvidia A100/H100 chips. The latter's order visibility has reached 2024, and it is more urgent to pursue orders from the foundry TSMC. According to Fierce Electronics, the supply of GPU network equipment of Broadcom and Nvidia is in serious shortage due to the surge in demand. Even though the two companies are trying to expand production, the gap between supply and demand is still huge.

In order to attract customers, a price war has erupted between GPU manufacturers, with Intel at the forefront. J. Gold Associates analyst Jack Gold stated that Intel's GPU pricing is "quite aggressive, especially for some low-end products"; Some large-scale manufacturers are likely to provide Intel's high-end GPUs to their own customers.